Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

395
FXUS61 KBUF 191716
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
116 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few systems will bring periodic chances for rain/snow late
this week and weekend, with colder air returning early next week.

2) Breezy to windy conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario
on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few systems will bring periodic chances for rain/
snow late this week and weekend, with colder air returning early
next week.

A clipper low will drop southeastward from the upper Great Lakes
and cross our region Friday. Forcing and increasing moisture
quality will support a round of fairly widespread precipitation
spreading northwest to southeast. Thermal profiles suggesting
rain south of Lake Ontario, with initial snow east of Lake
Ontario at the onset quickly transitioning over to rain. There is
some very low confidence potential for freezing rain if the rain
starts early enough. General rainfall amounts look to be in the
one half to three quarters inch range. While this round of rain
will bring rises on waterways, latest MMEFS guidance suggests
that only a few creeks may reach lower-end action stage.

The next system crosses our region Sunday and Sunday night.
Uncertainty remains in the strength and track of this system. Latest
deterministic guidance has shifted a bit father north with the
track of the primary surface low, resulting in a warmer solution.
However, a more southerly track of the low is certainly possible
which would favor a colder solution leading to more of a wintry
mix. This system bears watching as the overall low track will
end up being key to precipitation type.

Notably colder Canadian air will overspread our region behind this
system, sending temperatures back to below normal levels early
next week.

2) Breezy to windy conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario
on Friday.

A strengthening low level jet will accompany the incoming clipper
Friday. Warm advection will keep the strongest winds aloft, but at
least partial diurnal mixing should be sufficient to produce a period
of breezy to windy conditions south of Lake Ontario, especially
across the Niagara Frontier and higher terrain south of the NYS
Thruway, where some gusts to 30-35 mph appear likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level trough and warm front will exit the eastern Lake Ontario
region this afternoon, with spotty light snow and local MVFR VSBY
ending. Otherwise, a mix of lower end VFR and MVFR CIGS will
gradually improve to mainly VFR through the rest of the afternoon
and evening.

A strong 45-55+ knot low level jet will move across the eastern
Great Lakes Friday in advance of another trough and cold front. The
low level jet will initially produce low level wind shear Friday
morning, then increasing surface gusts with partial mixing. Expect
gusts in the 25-30+ knot range from late morning through the
afternoon Friday.

Another mid level trough and associated cold front will move
southeast across the eastern Great Lakes Friday. Rain will
overspread the area from northwest to southeast through the morning
and midday hours, with the rain becoming moderate for a few hours.
The rain will likely begin as a period of wet snow across the North
Country before changing to rain by early afternoon. VSBY will
deteriorate to MVFR in the rain and IFR in the snow, with some
MVFR/IFR VSBY in light fog persisting later in the afternoon and
evening even after the steady rain tapers off. CIGS will deteriorate
to widespread IFR along and behind the cold front Friday afternoon
and evening as post-frontal northwest upslope flow develops.

Outlook...

Friday night...Widespread IFR CIGS in the evening, improving
overnight.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain likely, possibly mixed
with snow across the North Country.

Monday...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers likely south
of Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds through tonight at less than 15 knots as high
pressure drifts through the region.

Winds will increase Friday as a clipper system crosses the lower
Great Lakes. The track of this system will cause winds to be
variable in speed and direction through the first half of the day
on Lake Ontario. On Lake Erie, winds will become southwesterly
with sustained speed of 15 to 20 knots with some potential to
near 25 knots for a brief time between midday and early
afternoon. Small craft headlines may need to be issued for this
time frame. The system cold front arriving later in the day will
shift winds to northwesterly with a diminishing trend.

Generally light winds should remain through Saturday before a cold
front crosses the lower Great Lakes, with northeasterly winds
increasing behind it, with small craft headlines likely being
required on Lake Ontario by late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...TMA